There are two types of labor shortages currently under examination. The first is a shortage in the current labor supply, and then there’s the much feared future labor supply that is projected as the large population of Baby Boomers retire and fewer Gen X and Gen Y employees enter the workforce to fill those same spots.
How tight is the U.S. labor market? At 4.6% of the workforce, the official unemployment rate is certainly low by historical standards. In industries from agriculture to construction, to health care and high tech, employers complain that there aren’t enough workers to fill positions. ((BusinessWeek.com, April 9, 2007. “Where Are All the Workers?“))
Many fear it’ll get worse in the wake of the Bush Administration’s decision to crack down on undocumented workers. Construction companies say offices and highways may not get built. Farmers talk of crops rotting in the fields, as illegal immigrants flee and Americans refuse to take up the plow. “Who will be there to put meat and vegetables on American dinner tables?” says Craig Regelbrugge, co-chairman of the Agriculture Coalition for Immigration Reform and spokesman for the American Nursery & Landscape Assn. “The only unaffected group will be Americans who do not eat.” ((BusinessWeek.com, August 14, 2007. “Immigration Rules: An Economic Disaster?“))
At 4.6% unemployment, there is certainly a tightness in labor, and this translates to HR much more in the senior talent ranks. While a few of us are concerned about construction and farming, I think in todays knowledge economy more of us are concerned about attracting and onboarding talent that can support innovation in our companies. However, while many organizations are feeling the tightness in the labor market, I’m not sure we’ve reached a point of crisis yet.
Consider the numbers. Even as the unemployment rate has declined in recent years, millions of Americans have left the workforce and stopped looking for jobs. The government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics has a dedicated category for “discouraged” workers who believe no positions are available to them. If the percentage of Americans participating in the workforce were the same now as it was in 2000, the number officially counted as unemployed would be 9.1 million, rather than 7.1 million. The unemployment rate would be 5.8%, instead of 4.6%.
Without regurgitating the entire argument, I think that we should still be much more concerned with the labor market that will emerge in the upcoming years. Today’s labor market shortage seems to be most impacted (to me) in the areas of less skilled or unskilled talent, and as the above paragraph points out, that shortage may be a pricing condition rather than a supply condition. The future labor market shortages we know will impact senior talent and there is no market fix other than the rapid development of talent for upcoming generations.
One response to “Labor Shortages: Myth and Reality”
Maybe I missed it but I didn’t see your second type of shortages. Nevertheless, I agree there are 2 types: quantity and quality. The unskilled/low-skilled positions as you described will be difficult to fill. The cause however may not be the result of under-supply but mis-match between the jobs and people willing to do the lower wage, lower skilled work
I do however believe that the shortages for semi- and highly skilled workers will worsen. Nearly every industry has vacancies for these higher skilled employees and have not been able to fill them. The delay in filling these difficult to fill positions has caused businesses to postpone or scrap plans. Shortages in health care, education and technology are well documented with no relief in site.
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